KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

21%

14%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 47.5¢Risks 47.45u

ICONNO 52.5¢Risks 52.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +52.55u · ICON −52.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	34.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	45.9%	—	—	44.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.7%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	87.5%	—	—	60.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	58.4%	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	37.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	34.9%	88.1%	18.4%	—	65.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	76.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	70.3%	76.8%	49.3%	—	58.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	92.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	25.8%	80.0%	5.6%	—	28.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	4.9%	32.3%	24.8%	—	22.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	2.5%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	15.2%	62.3%	10.4%	—	20.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	17.8%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	16.7%	64.6%	6.8%	—	24.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	10.3%	88.4%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	4.8%	61.8%	11.9%	—	13.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	5.6%	38.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	15.9%	30.4%	9.8%	—	30.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	11.4%	43.0%	—	—	47.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	10.8%	35.9%	9.4%	—	28.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	19.8%	16.3%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	5.6%	35.1%	3.8%	5.6%	31.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.3%	38.9%	0.0%	—	32.6%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	6.1%	57.0%	2.4%	—	19.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	13.9%	16.7%	1.2%	—	48.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	27.6%	48.8%	0.3%	75.4%	37.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.3%	52.6%	1.2%	—	34.9%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	12.7%	51.3%	0.1%	68.1%	12.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	17.3%	51.4%	0.0%	—	3.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.7%	38.6%	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	39.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	31.7%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	88.1°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	84.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	21%	80.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	79.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	76.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	76.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 18 · 15:07 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗