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KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
85%
AIFS
46%
WN2
42%
ICON
42%
HRES
26%
Consensus
54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 55.3¢Risks 55.30u
VS
HRESNO 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.70u · HRES −44.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00AIFS Single: 56.4% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00AIFS Single: 48.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00AIFS Single: 45.7% · 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.7% · 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.5% · 2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 42.5% · 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00IFS HRES: 84.1% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:00ICON: 41.5% · 2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:0009-16 11:0809-16 17:1009-16 22:26
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-16T11:08:06+00:0056.4%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T11:53:15+00:0056.4%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T12:38:21+00:0056.4%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T13:23:26+00:0048.6%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T14:09:45+00:0048.6%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T14:54:54+00:0048.6%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T15:40:07+00:0048.6%84.7%52.5%84.1%51.6%
2026-09-16T16:25:13+00:0048.6%84.7%52.5%77.6%41.5%
2026-09-16T17:10:20+00:0048.6%84.7%42.5%77.6%41.5%
2026-09-16T17:55:35+00:0048.6%84.7%42.5%77.6%41.5%
2026-09-16T18:40:45+00:0048.6%84.7%42.5%77.6%41.5%
2026-09-16T19:25:50+00:0045.7%84.7%42.5%25.9%41.5%
2026-09-16T20:10:56+00:0045.7%84.7%42.5%25.9%41.5%
2026-09-16T20:56:01+00:0045.7%84.7%42.5%25.9%41.5%
2026-09-16T21:41:05+00:0045.7%84.7%42.5%25.9%41.5%
2026-09-16T22:26:10+00:0045.7%84.7%42.5%25.9%41.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble85%92.0°F4.4°F2026-09-16 00:00Pending
National Blend55%88.4°F6.6°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
AIFS Single46%86.9°F5.5°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 242%86.6°F4.8°F2026-09-16 06:00Pending
ICON42%85.4°F9.8°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending
IFS HRES26%82.2°F8.2°F2026-09-16 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 16 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗