KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST54%Sep 16 · 22:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

46%

42%

42%

26%

Consensus

54%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 55.3¢Risks 55.30u

HRESNO 44.7¢Risks 44.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +44.70u · HRES −44.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	24.5%	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	69.8%	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	33.0%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	93.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	15.9%	—	—	52.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	27.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	13.7%	68.3%	5.4%	—	38.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	42.0%	50.0%	22.6%	—	30.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.8%	53.0%	0.9%	—	9.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.7%	10.4%	6.9%	—	5.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.3%	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	3.1%	30.0%	1.8%	—	4.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.8%	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	3.2%	30.7%	0.9%	—	5.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.5%	61.5%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.5%	26.6%	1.8%	—	2.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.5%	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.4%	6.8%	1.2%	—	6.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	1.4%	11.9%	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.2%	8.2%	0.9%	—	5.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.8%	2.0%	—	—	5.2%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	7.0%	0.2%	0.4%	5.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	7.9%	0.0%	—	5.7%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	16.0%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	1.5%	0.0%	—	10.8%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	28.7%	5.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	10.9%	0.0%	—	4.6%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	9.5%	0.0%	19.1%	0.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	8.6%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	3.7%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	85%	92.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	88.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	86.9°F	5.5°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	86.6°F	4.8°F	2026-09-16 06:00	Pending
ICON	42%	85.4°F	9.8°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	82.2°F	8.2°F	2026-09-16 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 16 · 11:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗