KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

22%

10%

10%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

AIFSNO 67.9¢Risks 67.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.85u · AIFS −67.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-16T23:11:17+00:00	39.3%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-16T23:56:28+00:00	39.3%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T00:41:33+00:00	39.3%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T01:26:47+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T02:12:06+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T02:57:15+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T03:42:32+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	37.6%
2026-09-17T04:27:40+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	21.9%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T05:12:46+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T05:57:53+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T06:43:01+00:00	29.4%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T07:28:05+00:00	14.3%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T08:13:10+00:00	14.3%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T08:58:15+00:00	14.3%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T09:43:23+00:00	14.3%	85.3%	20.7%	15.5%	56.4%
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	14.3%	85.3%	20.7%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	14.3%	56.7%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	14.3%	56.7%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	14.3%	56.7%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	0.6%	56.7%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	0.6%	56.7%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	16.8%	49.4%	56.4%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	16.8%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	0.6%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	13.2%	49.4%	22.2%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	13.2%	10.5%	22.2%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	10.1%	10.5%	22.2%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	10.1%	10.5%	22.2%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	5.1%	56.9%	10.1%	10.5%	22.2%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	7.4%	56.9%	10.1%	10.5%	22.2%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	7.4%	56.9%	10.1%	10.5%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	89.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	22%	83.3°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.2°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	80.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗