KBNA / Wed Sep 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

22%

10%

10%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

AIFSNO 67.9¢Risks 67.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.85u · AIFS −67.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	64.1%	—	—	30.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	27.3%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	12.1%	—	—	45.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	10.2%	61.8%	3.8%	—	31.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	35.0%	42.7%	17.5%	—	24.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	5.4%	45.4%	0.5%	—	6.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.4%	7.2%	4.7%	—	3.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.1%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.9%	23.2%	1.1%	—	3.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.9%	23.4%	0.5%	—	3.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.9%	52.7%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	19.6%	1.0%	—	1.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.3%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.3%	4.2%	0.6%	—	4.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.7%	7.6%	—	—	9.2%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	4.9%	0.5%	—	3.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	1.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	4.0%	0.1%	0.1%	3.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	4.5%	0.0%	—	3.1%
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	10.0%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	0.7%	0.0%	—	6.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.6%	5.5%	0.0%	19.1%	3.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	6.0%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	5.0%	0.0%	11.3%	0.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	4.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	57%	89.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	89.0°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	89.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	22%	83.3°F	6.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	80.2°F	6.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	82.8°F	4.5°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	80.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260923-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 16 · 23:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Sep 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗