KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

26%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

AIFSNO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.15u · AIFS −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	6.0%	68.9%	12.0%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	6.0%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	6.0%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	6.0%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	42.7%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	9.3%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	0.8%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.4%	51.3%	26.3%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.4%	5.5%	26.3%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.1%	5.5%	26.3%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.1%	5.5%	26.3%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	1.6%	47.5%	4.1%	5.5%	26.3%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	2.2%	47.5%	4.1%	5.5%	26.3%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	2.2%	47.5%	4.1%	5.5%	26.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	81.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	77.6°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.2°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	76.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗