KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST11%Sep 18 · 02:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

48%

26%

Consensus

11%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.9¢Risks 24.85u

AIFSNO 75.2¢Risks 75.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.15u · AIFS −75.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	29.3%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	28.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	15.9%	18.9%	—	—	19.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	3.5%	38.9%	0.6%	—	5.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	3.5%	8.7%	—	4.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.4%	10.7%	3.9%	—	3.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.9%	10.4%	0.1%	—	4.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.5%	12.0%	5.1%	—	2.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.0%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.4%	0.8%	4.3%	—	5.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.1%	3.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.1%	9.4%	2.8%	—	6.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	5.6%	22.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	15.9%	1.2%	—	5.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	10.5%	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	22.7%	1.4%	—	4.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.0%	25.3%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	8.5%	14.3%	1.1%	17.6%	8.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.1%	22.3%	0.0%	—	5.4%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	9.0%	21.5%	0.8%	14.0%	2.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.5%	26.3%	0.5%	—	1.6%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	23.6%	1.2%	0.3%	0.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	16.6%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	16.5%	0.3%	1.3%	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	3.5%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.6%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	3.4%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	5.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.9%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	6.5°F	2026-09-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	87.2°F	4.7°F	2026-09-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	81.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	77.6°F	6.2°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.2°F	4.8°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	76.3°F	5.5°F	2026-09-17 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗