KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 04:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

AIFSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.67u · AIFS −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-17T10:28:37+00:00	2.8%	52.6%	5.8%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T11:14:04+00:00	2.8%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T11:59:12+00:00	2.8%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T12:44:17+00:00	2.8%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T13:29:22+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T14:15:36+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T15:00:48+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T15:46:03+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	34.9%
2026-09-17T16:31:11+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	4.1%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T17:16:20+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T18:01:24+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T18:46:33+00:00	0.3%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T19:31:38+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T20:16:44+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T21:01:49+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T21:46:54+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.7%	38.6%	20.1%
2026-09-17T22:31:59+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.7%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-17T23:17:04+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T00:02:09+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T00:47:16+00:00	0.6%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T01:32:22+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T02:17:28+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T03:02:40+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T03:48:03+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	20.1%
2026-09-18T04:33:08+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-18T05:18:13+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-18T06:03:18+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-18T06:48:26+00:00	0.9%	31.2%	1.5%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-18T07:33:40+00:00	1.4%	31.2%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T08:19:07+00:00	1.4%	31.2%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T09:04:14+00:00	1.4%	31.2%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T09:49:19+00:00	1.4%	31.2%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T10:34:35+00:00	1.4%	31.2%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T11:20:03+00:00	1.4%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T12:05:14+00:00	1.4%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T12:50:19+00:00	1.4%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T13:35:25+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T14:21:55+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T15:07:09+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T15:52:25+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	1.0%
2026-09-18T16:37:30+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T17:22:36+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T18:07:41+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T18:52:50+00:00	0.7%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T19:37:55+00:00	0.6%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T20:23:00+00:00	0.6%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T21:08:04+00:00	0.6%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T21:53:09+00:00	0.6%	3.9%	1.5%	1.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T22:38:15+00:00	0.6%	3.9%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-18T23:23:20+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T00:08:25+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T00:53:32+00:00	0.6%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T01:38:37+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T02:23:43+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T03:08:55+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T03:54:13+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	14.6%
2026-09-19T04:39:19+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	11.3%
2026-09-19T05:24:24+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	11.3%
2026-09-19T06:09:28+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	11.3%
2026-09-19T06:54:37+00:00	0.7%	4.1%	1.5%	6.9%	11.3%
2026-09-19T07:39:53+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T08:25:24+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T09:10:36+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T09:55:41+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T10:40:46+00:00	1.3%	4.1%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T11:25:54+00:00	1.3%	7.4%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T12:11:04+00:00	1.3%	7.4%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T12:56:08+00:00	1.3%	7.4%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T13:41:14+00:00	0.8%	7.4%	1.5%	12.2%	11.3%
2026-09-19T14:27:50+00:00	0.8%	7.4%	1.6%	12.2%	11.4%
2026-09-19T15:13:01+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	11.4%
2026-09-19T15:58:14+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	11.4%
2026-09-19T16:43:19+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	2.0%
2026-09-19T17:28:24+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	2.0%
2026-09-19T18:13:29+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	2.0%
2026-09-19T18:58:38+00:00	0.8%	6.8%	1.6%	12.2%	2.0%
2026-09-19T19:43:43+00:00	1.1%	6.8%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-19T20:28:48+00:00	1.1%	6.8%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-19T21:13:52+00:00	1.1%	6.8%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-19T21:58:57+00:00	1.1%	6.8%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-19T22:44:03+00:00	1.1%	6.8%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-19T23:29:08+00:00	1.1%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T00:14:14+00:00	1.1%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T00:59:23+00:00	1.1%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T01:44:30+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T02:29:37+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T03:14:47+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T04:00:03+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	2.0%
2026-09-20T04:45:09+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	1.3%
2026-09-20T05:30:14+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	1.3%
2026-09-20T06:15:19+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	1.3%
2026-09-20T07:00:27+00:00	1.8%	7.4%	1.6%	9.0%	1.3%
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00	2.2%	7.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	2.2%	7.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	2.2%	7.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	2.2%	7.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	2.2%	7.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T11:31:33+00:00	2.2%	10.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	2.2%	10.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	2.2%	10.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	2.0%	10.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	2.0%	10.4%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.3%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	2.0%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.6%	22.6%	1.4%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	0.6%	10.2%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-20T23:35:04+00:00	0.6%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	0.6%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	0.6%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	1.4%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	0.8%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	0.2%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	0.2%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	0.2%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	0.2%	10.6%	1.6%	22.0%	3.0%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	0.2%	5.9%	1.6%	17.1%	3.0%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	0.2%	5.9%	1.6%	17.1%	3.0%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	0.2%	5.9%	1.6%	17.1%	3.0%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	1.6%	17.1%	3.0%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	0.4%	5.9%	1.6%	17.1%	3.0%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	0.3%	6.4%	1.6%	12.5%	1.7%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	0.2%	11.5%	1.6%	12.3%	1.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	0.2%	11.5%	1.6%	12.3%	1.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	0.2%	11.5%	1.6%	12.3%	1.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	0.2%	11.5%	1.6%	12.3%	1.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	0.3%	11.6%	1.5%	12.2%	1.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	0.3%	11.6%	1.5%	12.2%	1.7%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	0.3%	13.0%	0.5%	12.2%	2.2%
2026-09-23T03:34:35+00:00	0.3%	13.0%	0.5%	12.2%	2.2%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	0.3%	13.0%	0.5%	12.2%	2.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	13%	86.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	84.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	84.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗