KBNA / Thu Sep 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 04:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

12%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 6.7¢Risks 3.33u

AIFSNO 93.3¢Risks 46.67u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.67u · AIFS −46.67u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	—	—	—	23.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	58.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	37.2%	—	—	18.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	12.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	9.0%	11.1%	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	26.3%	0.2%	—	2.3%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	1.5%	4.2%	—	1.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.3%	5.2%	1.6%	—	1.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.0%	4.9%	0.0%	—	1.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	5.6%	2.0%	—	1.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	1.6%	—	1.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.0%	1.3%	—	—	2.8%
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	3.8%	0.9%	—	2.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	10.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.9%	6.8%	0.3%	—	2.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.0%	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	10.3%	0.3%	—	1.5%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.6%	11.6%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.8%	5.3%	0.2%	7.0%	2.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	9.2%	0.0%	—	1.5%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.7%	8.5%	0.1%	4.8%	0.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	10.8%	0.1%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	8.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	5.3%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	5.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	13%	86.1°F	3.0°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	12%	84.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	84.0°F	2.9°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	82.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	80.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	78.0°F	4.2°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260924-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 17 · 10:28 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 90°F+ · Thu Sep 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗