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KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
76%
EPS
71%
HRES
42%
WN2
39%
ICON
11%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u
VS
ICONNO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.30u · ICON −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00AIFS Single: 76.4% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.6% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.3% · 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.3% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00IFS HRES: 41.6% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00ICON: 11.0% · 2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:0009-25 18:0809-25 18:54
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:0076.4%70.6%39.3%41.6%11.0%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:0076.4%70.6%39.3%41.6%11.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend87%82.0°F2.2°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
AIFS Single76%81.7°F3.1°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble71%80.8°F2.4°F2026-09-25 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%80.0°F2.2°F2026-09-25 17:00Pending
IFS HRES42%78.7°F3.8°F2026-09-24 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 239%78.8°F2.6°F2026-09-25 06:00Pending
ICON11%75.3°F3.4°F2026-09-25 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗