KBNA / Fri Sep 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 25 · 18:54 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

71%

42%

39%

11%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 43.7¢Risks 43.70u

ICONNO 56.3¢Risks 56.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +56.30u · ICON −56.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	74.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	73.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	77.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	57.5%	—	—	61.8%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	50.6%	—	—	36.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	1.2%	30.6%	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	65.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	53.5%	50.7%	27.5%	—	35.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	60.1%	68.3%	13.6%	—	44.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	43.2%	77.2%	37.2%	—	42.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	34.1%	—	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	44.4%	54.0%	46.8%	—	53.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	19.5%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	31.5%	56.6%	47.5%	—	57.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	34.2%	71.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	60.4%	82.2%	34.6%	—	58.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	80.4%	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	60.9%	93.0%	59.1%	—	58.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	56.6%	84.1%	—	—	69.1%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	74.5%	76.8%	44.2%	45.1%	65.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	81.7%	86.5%	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	82.4%	90.1%	47.9%	—	55.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	52.1%	82.4%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	30.1%	88.6%	45.6%	—	31.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.3%	28.6%	86.5%	0.3%	—	28.6%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	21.5%	84.7%	39.6%	53.5%	30.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	28.3%	89.8%	37.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	23.6%	79.2%	40.1%	4.9%	16.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	15.8%	77.2%	43.6%	—	20.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	11.3%	84.3%	44.6%	2.8%	26.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	19.1%	16.4%	74.7%	41.7%	—	23.2%
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	21.2%	77.8%	40.0%	18.2%	31.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	27.2%	76.4%	39.5%	—	36.6%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	21.4%	77.4%	45.3%	16.1%	27.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	38.6%	73.3%	56.6%	—	43.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	81.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	80.8°F	2.4°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-25 17:00	Pending
IFS HRES	42%	78.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	39%	78.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260925-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Fri Sep 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗