KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

66%

58%

18%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	81.2%	89.6%	41.9%	62.4%	19.0%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	81.2%	89.6%	41.9%	62.4%	19.0%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	41.9%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	41.9%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	41.9%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	41.9%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	41.9%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	83.2%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	19.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	38.5%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	58.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	58.1%	65.5%	18.3%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	85.5%	89.6%	58.1%	65.5%	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	80.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	79.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	74.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗