KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Sep 26 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

66%

58%

18%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 53.9¢Risks 53.95u

ICONNO 46.1¢Risks 46.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +46.05u · ICON −46.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	78.4%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	86.6%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	78.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	83.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	66.5%	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.7%	—	56.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	67.0%	—	—	53.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	23.8%	47.3%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	66.4%	57.0%	25.7%	—	54.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	79.0%	24.9%	44.9%	—	62.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	63.5%	57.6%	40.2%	—	66.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	72.6%	67.7%	50.0%	—	64.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	43.5%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	72.8%	98.9%	66.2%	—	59.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	48.3%	88.1%	—	—	60.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	86.9%	70.9%	38.8%	—	75.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	87.0%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	68.6%	65.3%	41.8%	—	70.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	45.3%	69.1%	—	—	64.8%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	11.1%	49.0%	46.1%	—	51.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	24.1%	61.8%	—	—	42.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	35.9%	36.9%	53.1%	—	41.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	36.5%	12.1%	47.9%	—	—	19.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	11.9%	32.1%	53.3%	—	45.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	11.2%	83.9%	0.3%	—	45.5%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	13.4%	65.9%	52.3%	—	47.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	8.2%	80.1%	63.0%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	25.6%	85.6%	57.4%	1.3%	42.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	10.9%	85.0%	60.2%	—	51.3%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	27.3%	42.0%	63.2%	0.5%	40.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	39.0%	56.9%	70.0%	—	35.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	37.2%	69.5%	78.8%	18.2%	55.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	51.5%	90.8%	68.9%	—	36.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	46.8%	97.6%	72.4%	16.1%	51.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	84.0%	97.7%	80.8%	—	85.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	90%	80.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	86%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	79.0°F	3.8°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	78.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	74.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗