KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

65%

43%

21%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

ICONNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.80u · ICON −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T02:56:27+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	18.6%	47.3%	22.0%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	18.6%	47.3%	22.0%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	18.6%	47.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	20.0%	47.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	20.0%	47.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	54.6%	85.6%	20.0%	47.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T07:27:46+00:00	58.5%	85.6%	20.0%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	58.5%	85.6%	20.0%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	58.5%	85.6%	20.0%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	58.5%	85.6%	20.0%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	58.5%	85.6%	20.0%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	58.5%	79.7%	16.1%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	58.5%	79.7%	16.1%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	58.5%	79.7%	16.1%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	62.2%	79.7%	16.1%	43.3%	2.8%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	62.2%	79.0%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T15:01:51+00:00	62.2%	74.3%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	62.2%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	62.2%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	62.2%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	62.2%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	62.2%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	2.9%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	66.7%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	66.7%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	66.7%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	66.7%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	66.7%	74.8%	16.1%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	66.7%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	66.7%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	66.7%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T03:04:17+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	4.0%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	17.5%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	64.9%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	60.7%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	60.7%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	60.7%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	60.7%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	60.7%	60.5%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	60.7%	70.3%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	60.7%	70.3%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	60.7%	70.3%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	65.3%	70.3%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	65.3%	70.2%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	65.3%	69.0%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	65.3%	69.0%	24.8%	43.3%	6.3%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	65.3%	69.0%	24.8%	43.3%	7.4%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	65.3%	69.0%	21.4%	43.3%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	80.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	81.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	78.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	76.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	74.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗