KBNA / Sat Sep 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 25 · 17:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

65%

43%

21%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.2¢Risks 38.20u

ICONNO 61.8¢Risks 61.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +61.80u · ICON −61.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	75.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	23.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	54.8%	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	55.0%	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	—	—	—	37.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	14.7%	34.2%	—	—	41.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	29.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	52.8%	43.0%	15.8%	—	40.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	67.0%	14.8%	31.0%	—	47.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	48.5%	42.4%	26.4%	—	51.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	57.9%	52.4%	34.5%	—	48.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	28.3%	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	57.5%	96.9%	50.0%	—	43.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	31.9%	77.4%	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	75.2%	54.4%	23.4%	—	59.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	75.0%	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	50.9%	47.2%	25.1%	—	52.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	27.6%	50.9%	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	4.4%	30.4%	27.9%	—	32.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	11.4%	42.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	17.0%	19.0%	19.7%	33.0%	—	23.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	4.5%	27.9%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	4.2%	15.5%	32.1%	—	25.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	3.8%	66.4%	0.1%	—	24.9%
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	4.5%	43.0%	30.0%	—	26.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	2.3%	59.5%	39.3%	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	10.0%	66.9%	33.1%	0.2%	20.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	3.0%	65.1%	34.9%	—	26.9%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	10.1%	19.1%	36.8%	0.1%	18.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	16.4%	30.0%	43.1%	—	13.9%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	14.6%	41.4%	52.9%	5.1%	28.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	23.6%	71.5%	39.5%	—	13.6%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	19.2%	88.3%	42.1%	3.7%	22.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	56.6%	87.7%	51.6%	—	58.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	69%	80.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	65%	81.1°F	4.1°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	78.8°F	4.1°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	21%	76.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
ICON	7%	74.4°F	3.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260926-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Sep 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗