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KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
51%
ICON
49%
HRES
43%
AIFS
34%
WN2
22%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 36.7¢Risks 36.70u
VS
WN2NO 63.3¢Risks 63.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.30u · WN2 −63.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00AIFS Single: 33.9% · 2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 22.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00IFS HRES: 43.0% · 2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00ICON: 49.2% · 2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:0009-20 07:4509-20 09:1609-20 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-20T07:45:42+00:0033.9%51.2%22.2%43.0%49.2%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:0033.9%51.2%22.2%43.0%49.2%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:0033.9%51.2%22.2%43.0%49.2%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:0033.9%51.2%22.2%43.0%49.2%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:0033.9%51.2%22.2%43.0%49.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%83.0°F4.4°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%82.6°F3.3°F2026-09-19 00:00Pending
ICON49%82.3°F9.8°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES43%81.4°F6.2°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single34%80.2°F5.5°F2026-09-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 222%78.2°F5.6°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗