KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Sep 20 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

51%

49%

43%

34%

22%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.7¢Risks 36.70u

WN2NO 63.3¢Risks 63.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.30u · WN2 −63.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	37.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	9.6%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	40.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	12.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	23.3%	—	—	—	34.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	18.4%	36.2%	4.4%	—	35.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	10.9%	40.6%	8.2%	—	39.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	47.7%	87.8%	1.7%	—	32.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	33.0%	82.6%	3.6%	—	46.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	12.6%	8.2%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	17.8%	28.6%	15.7%	—	42.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	7.0%	15.7%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	4.3%	50.0%	19.6%	—	25.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.6%	2.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	1.7%	0.1%	9.4%	—	13.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.2%	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.9%	9.4%	3.0%	—	10.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	6.6%	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	0.2%	16.3%	1.4%	—	10.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	4.5%	18.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	5.6%	13.7%	7.3%	—	8.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.7%	16.8%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	4.2%	13.4%	7.6%	—	6.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	9.2%	23.4%	7.8%	—	9.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	10.6%	16.6%	11.2%	0.0%	23.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	10.3%	42.3%	9.8%	—	15.8%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	6.1%	35.6%	8.9%	1.7%	13.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	15.6%	37.7%	11.1%	—	22.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	19.1%	28.0%	21.2%	10.2%	30.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	18.1%	28.5%	16.2%	—	14.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	13.4%	33.1%	9.6%	6.6%	13.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	25.4%	13.2%	—	20.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	82.6°F	3.3°F	2026-09-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	49%	82.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	81.4°F	6.2°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	80.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	78.2°F	5.6°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE83
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 83°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗