KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

31%

26%

17%

10%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-21T03:20:45+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	34.1%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	34.1%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	12.8%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	10.7%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	10.7%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	10.7%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	10.7%	31.3%	9.8%	27.7%	17.1%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	10.7%	31.3%	9.8%	29.9%	17.1%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	10.7%	26.7%	9.8%	29.9%	17.1%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	10.7%	26.7%	9.8%	29.9%	17.1%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	10.7%	26.7%	9.8%	29.9%	17.1%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	12.6%	26.7%	9.9%	29.9%	17.2%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	12.6%	26.7%	9.9%	29.9%	17.2%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	49.4%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	49.4%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	49.4%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	31.0%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	31.0%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	31.0%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	14.2%	27.9%	9.9%	31.0%	31.0%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	11.6%	27.9%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	11.6%	27.9%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	11.6%	27.9%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	11.6%	27.9%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	11.6%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	11.6%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	11.6%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	11.6%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.0%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	17.2%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.1%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	17.2%	50.0%	9.9%	25.8%	31.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	85.5°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	31%	82.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	78.2°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗