KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 22 · 14:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

31%

26%

17%

10%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

WN2NO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +70.05u · WN2 −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	23.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	3.8%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	4.8%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	10.8%	—	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	10.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	7.7%	18.9%	1.3%	—	18.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	3.8%	21.5%	2.6%	—	21.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	71.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	26.4%	72.4%	0.4%	—	15.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	14.9%	63.3%	0.8%	—	24.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	2.2%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	6.1%	11.6%	5.1%	—	20.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.7%	4.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.9%	25.5%	6.5%	—	9.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.1%	0.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.2%	0.0%	2.2%	—	3.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.0%	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	0.1%	2.0%	0.4%	—	2.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	1.2%	8.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.0%	4.0%	0.1%	—	2.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.6%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.8%	2.8%	1.1%	—	1.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	0.8%	3.5%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.5%	2.4%	1.1%	—	0.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	1.3%	5.1%	1.0%	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	1.4%	2.8%	1.6%	0.0%	4.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	1.3%	12.2%	1.2%	—	2.4%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.5%	8.4%	0.9%	0.1%	1.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.0%	8.6%	1.2%	—	3.5%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	2.5%	4.7%	2.9%	0.9%	5.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	4.4%	1.7%	—	1.4%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	5.2%	0.6%	0.4%	1.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	2.8%	0.9%	—	1.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	86.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-22 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	85.5°F	3.1°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
ICON	31%	82.6°F	5.9°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	81.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	80.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	78.2°F	5.7°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 21 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗