KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 3.3¢Risks 0.83u

ICONNO 96.7¢Risks 24.18u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.18u · ICON −24.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	33.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	1.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	1.6%	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.0%	—	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.5%	7.9%	0.3%	—	7.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.0%	9.0%	0.6%	—	8.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	11.4%	50.8%	0.1%	—	5.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	5.1%	39.7%	0.1%	—	9.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.4%	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	1.5%	3.4%	1.2%	—	7.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	1.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	9.4%	1.5%	—	2.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	—	0.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.0%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.6%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.8%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	0.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	16%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 14:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	83.7°F	3.1°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	81.4°F	4.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	80.0°F	5.0°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	74.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	77.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗