KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

WN2NO 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.95u · WN2 −88.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-20T07:45:43+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T08:31:12+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T09:16:17+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T10:01:21+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T10:46:26+00:00	4.7%	1.8%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T11:31:34+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T12:16:52+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T13:01:57+00:00	4.7%	5.7%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T13:47:03+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.2%	9.6%	23.1%
2026-09-20T14:33:34+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	23.0%
2026-09-20T15:18:48+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	23.0%
2026-09-20T16:04:07+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	23.0%
2026-09-20T16:49:12+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T17:34:18+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T18:19:23+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T19:04:30+00:00	3.9%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T19:49:36+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T20:34:41+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T21:19:46+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T22:04:50+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	2.3%	9.7%	20.6%
2026-09-20T22:49:58+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-20T23:35:05+00:00	2.6%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T00:20:13+00:00	2.6%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T01:05:23+00:00	2.6%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T01:50:29+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T02:35:35+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T03:20:46+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T04:06:01+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	20.6%
2026-09-21T04:51:09+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T05:36:17+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T06:21:23+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T07:06:30+00:00	3.2%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T07:51:35+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T08:36:41+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T09:21:46+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T10:06:50+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	2.3%	10.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T10:52:09+00:00	2.3%	6.5%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00	2.3%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	6.3%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	27.5%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	27.5%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	27.5%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00	2.9%	2.3%	2.3%	12.9%	27.5%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00	2.7%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	27.5%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	11.9%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	11.9%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	11.9%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	3.4%	2.5%	2.3%	13.6%	11.9%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	2.3%	2.5%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	2.3%	2.5%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	2.3%	2.5%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	2.3%	2.5%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	2.3%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	11.9%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	12.0%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	12.0%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	12.0%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	12.0%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	4.0%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	3.8%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	3.8%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	3.8%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	3.8%	9.8%	2.3%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	3.8%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	3.8%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	3.8%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	3.8%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:36+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	9.1%	6.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	22.0%	0.2%
2026-09-23T05:50:04+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	22.0%	0.2%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	22.0%	0.2%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	3.0%	11.1%	0.1%	22.0%	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	22%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	85.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	76.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗