KBNA / Sun Sep 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 23 · 07:20 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

11%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

WN2NO 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.95u · WN2 −88.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.7%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	0.8%	—	—	5.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	1.0%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	2.8%	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	5.6%	0.2%	—	5.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	6.4%	0.4%	—	6.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	43.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	8.1%	43.2%	0.0%	—	3.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.3%	32.3%	0.1%	—	6.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.2%	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	2.1%	0.7%	—	4.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	0.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	6.2%	0.8%	—	1.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	22%	85.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	11%	85.6°F	3.2°F	2026-09-22 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	11%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-23 02:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	84.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	80.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-22 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	76.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-22 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260927-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 20 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Sep 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗