KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

84%

78%

53%

33%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.50u · WN2 −35.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T03:19:45+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	18.2%	66.9%	44.4%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	18.2%	66.9%	44.4%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	18.2%	66.9%	53.4%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	35.6%	66.9%	53.4%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	35.6%	66.9%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	80.5%	92.4%	35.6%	66.9%	53.4%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	35.6%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	35.6%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	35.6%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	35.6%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	82.5%	92.4%	35.6%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	33.0%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	33.0%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	82.5%	96.0%	33.0%	84.5%	53.4%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	78.5%	96.0%	33.0%	84.5%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	83.9°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗