KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

84%

78%

53%

33%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.5¢Risks 64.50u

WN2NO 35.5¢Risks 35.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.50u · WN2 −35.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	—	—	—	52.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	2.2%	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	76.4%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	7.2%	69.4%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	77.6%	92.6%	4.5%	—	73.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	71.5%	42.7%	49.3%	—	78.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	28.3%	83.5%	50.0%	—	75.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	26.8%	84.1%	31.6%	—	61.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.2%	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	48.3%	78.1%	28.6%	—	58.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	16.7%	85.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.8%	79.2%	24.8%	—	50.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	7.8%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	32.2%	79.1%	26.6%	—	52.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	32.6%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	33.0%	67.8%	33.9%	—	47.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	34.4%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	32.1%	78.1%	42.8%	—	42.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	41.6%	43.7%	80.2%	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	48.9%	50.0%	81.0%	55.5%	—	60.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	53.4%	86.5%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	48.8%	86.0%	53.5%	0.0%	51.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	63.0%	78.4%	45.2%	—	61.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	53.7%	69.2%	84.9%	56.2%	55.0%	73.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	67.5%	78.1%	50.0%	—	68.7%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	70.5%	88.0%	52.7%	0.0%	70.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	71.2%	85.3%	59.7%	—	72.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	77.8%	89.8%	77.8%	69.5%	79.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	79.8%	87.2%	68.9%	—	57.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	76.2%	88.3%	69.7%	75.0%	56.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	80.8%	85.9%	79.7%	—	73.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	83.9°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	83.3°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	82.7°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
ICON	53%	79.8°F	3.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	79.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗