KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

49%

46%

12%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

WN2NO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.40u · WN2 −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:01:52+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.8%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.8%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.8%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	29.5%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.5%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	34.1%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.0%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	34.1%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.0%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	34.1%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.0%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	34.1%	43.9%	3.4%	32.4%	16.0%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	34.1%	43.9%	3.4%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	34.1%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T03:04:17+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	16.0%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	3.8%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	34.9%	30.2%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	34.9%	22.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	34.9%	22.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	34.9%	22.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	34.9%	22.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.8%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	34.9%	23.0%	4.0%	36.0%	8.4%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	34.9%	23.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.4%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	34.9%	23.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.4%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	34.9%	23.4%	4.0%	36.0%	8.4%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	34.9%	23.4%	2.7%	36.0%	8.4%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	3.5%	45.7%	14.7%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	3.5%	45.7%	14.7%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	9.8%	45.7%	11.5%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	9.8%	45.7%	11.5%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	9.8%	45.7%	11.5%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	49.0%	59.4%	9.8%	45.7%	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	84.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗