KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Sep 28 · 07:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

59%

49%

46%

12%

10%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 34.6¢Risks 34.60u

WN2NO 65.4¢Risks 65.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.40u · WN2 −65.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	36.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	0.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	42.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	31.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	52.6%	—	—	41.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	9.9%	1.6%	43.3%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	52.1%	77.0%	0.8%	—	47.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	43.4%	17.9%	22.6%	—	51.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	26.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	9.0%	58.3%	22.2%	—	46.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	7.8%	57.9%	10.0%	—	30.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	0.1%	62.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	18.9%	47.5%	8.0%	—	26.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	3.4%	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	9.7%	47.4%	5.9%	—	19.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	1.0%	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	8.3%	45.4%	6.1%	—	19.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	8.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	7.9%	30.4%	8.2%	—	14.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	8.0%	31.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	6.7%	39.8%	11.3%	—	11.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	11.1%	41.6%	—	—	12.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	13.7%	41.3%	16.9%	—	20.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	14.8%	48.9%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	11.6%	46.5%	14.0%	0.0%	12.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	19.1%	33.6%	9.2%	—	18.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	22.7%	41.3%	13.7%	13.0%	26.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	20.0%	30.2%	9.8%	—	20.9%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	21.0%	43.3%	10.1%	0.0%	21.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	20.1%	36.3%	12.4%	—	21.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.5%	42.8%	24.5%	17.2%	26.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	24.8%	35.2%	15.3%	—	9.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	19.2%	34.6%	14.2%	18.1%	7.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	21.6%	28.1%	20.3%	—	15.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	59%	84.1°F	2.5°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	49%	83.4°F	4.1°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	83.1°F	3.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	26%	82.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
ICON	12%	79.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	10%	79.1°F	3.4°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗