KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

20%

17%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.2¢Risks 11.15u

WN2NO 88.8¢Risks 88.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +88.85u · WN2 −88.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T02:42:25+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	59.7%
2026-09-22T03:27:45+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	59.7%
2026-09-22T04:12:49+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	59.7%
2026-09-22T04:57:59+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	51.7%
2026-09-22T05:43:19+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	51.7%
2026-09-22T06:28:40+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	51.7%
2026-09-22T07:13:49+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	38.1%	51.7%
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	17.9%	46.0%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	17.9%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	17.9%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	17.9%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	17.9%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	20.5%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	20.5%	55.3%	14.5%	33.7%	51.7%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	33.7%	19.9%
2026-09-23T03:34:36+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	33.7%	19.9%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	33.7%	19.9%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	54.2%	12.3%
2026-09-23T05:50:04+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	54.2%	12.3%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	54.2%	12.3%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	26.8%	56.2%	3.8%	54.2%	12.3%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	19.3%	56.2%	3.8%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	19.3%	56.2%	3.8%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	19.3%	56.2%	3.8%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	19.3%	56.2%	3.8%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	19.3%	41.8%	3.3%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	19.3%	41.8%	3.3%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	19.3%	41.8%	3.3%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	18.2%	41.8%	3.3%	56.1%	12.3%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	17.6%	41.8%	3.3%	56.1%	12.0%
2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.3%	34.0%	24.7%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.3%	34.0%	24.7%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.3%	34.0%	8.1%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.8%	34.0%	8.1%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.8%	34.0%	8.1%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	25.2%	41.8%	2.8%	34.0%	8.1%
2026-09-24T07:27:46+00:00	17.1%	41.8%	2.8%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	17.1%	41.8%	2.8%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	17.1%	41.8%	2.8%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	17.1%	41.8%	2.8%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	17.1%	41.8%	2.8%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	17.1%	21.2%	1.1%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	17.1%	21.2%	1.1%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	17.1%	21.2%	1.1%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	16.6%	21.2%	1.1%	19.7%	8.1%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	16.6%	21.2%	1.1%	19.7%	8.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	83.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	81.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	81.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗