KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

20%

17%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.2¢Risks 11.15u

WN2NO 88.8¢Risks 88.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +88.85u · WN2 −88.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	26.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	39.7%	—	—	29.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	14.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	0.7%	30.6%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	38.2%	65.1%	0.3%	—	33.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	29.7%	10.0%	13.2%	—	37.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	4.2%	43.2%	12.5%	—	32.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	34.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.4%	42.1%	4.7%	—	18.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.0%	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	9.7%	31.5%	3.4%	—	14.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	1.2%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	4.1%	30.7%	2.3%	—	9.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	0.3%	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	3.2%	28.2%	2.2%	—	9.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	3.0%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.9%	15.9%	3.0%	—	6.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	2.8%	16.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	2.2%	21.9%	4.2%	—	4.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	4.0%	22.8%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	5.0%	22.1%	6.6%	—	8.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	5.4%	27.6%	0.0%	—	7.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.8%	25.1%	4.8%	0.0%	4.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	7.0%	15.2%	2.7%	—	6.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	8.5%	19.9%	4.3%	4.0%	10.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	6.8%	12.2%	2.6%	—	7.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.0%	20.0%	2.6%	0.0%	7.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	6.2%	14.7%	3.2%	—	6.7%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	7.8%	18.2%	7.8%	4.7%	8.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	7.5%	12.8%	3.7%	—	1.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.8%	11.7%	3.1%	4.4%	1.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	5.3%	7.9%	4.9%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	21%	83.5°F	2.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	81.2°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	81.0°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
ICON	8%	78.9°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	1%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 22 · 02:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗