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KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
52%
HRES
27%
EPS
22%
AIFS
10%
WN2
8%
Consensus
22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.85u
VS
WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.15u · WN2 −70.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00AIFS Single: 6.5% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 21.2% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.2% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.2% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.2% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.2% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 22.2% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.0% · 2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 8.1% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00IFS HRES: 20.3% · 2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00IFS HRES: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00IFS HRES: 26.8% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:00ICON: 10.0% · 2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:0009-21 11:3709-21 19:1109-22 01:57
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-21T11:37:52+00:008.0%21.2%8.0%20.3%10.0%
2026-09-21T12:23:01+00:008.0%21.2%8.0%20.3%10.0%
2026-09-21T13:08:06+00:008.0%21.2%8.0%20.3%10.0%
2026-09-21T13:53:12+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%10.0%
2026-09-21T14:40:18+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%10.0%
2026-09-21T15:25:30+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%10.0%
2026-09-21T16:10:46+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%10.0%
2026-09-21T16:55:51+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%51.6%
2026-09-21T17:40:57+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%51.6%
2026-09-21T18:26:02+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%51.6%
2026-09-21T19:11:12+00:006.5%21.2%8.1%20.4%51.6%
2026-09-21T19:56:19+00:006.8%21.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-21T20:41:30+00:006.8%21.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-21T21:26:36+00:006.8%21.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-21T22:11:42+00:006.8%21.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-21T22:56:47+00:006.8%22.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-21T23:41:53+00:006.7%22.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-22T00:26:58+00:006.7%22.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-22T01:12:07+00:006.7%22.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
2026-09-22T01:57:12+00:0010.0%22.2%8.1%26.8%51.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
National Blend55%88.0°F4.1°F2026-09-21 06:00Pending
ICON52%87.9°F9.8°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
IFS HRES27%83.6°F6.3°F2026-09-21 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble22%85.2°F3.0°F2026-09-21 00:00Pending
AIFS Single10%80.4°F5.5°F2026-09-21 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%79.3°F5.9°F2026-09-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 21 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗