KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 22 · 01:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

27%

22%

10%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 29.8¢Risks 29.85u

WN2NO 70.2¢Risks 70.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +70.15u · WN2 −70.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	27.8%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.2%	19.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	25.7%	51.4%	0.1%	—	21.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	18.4%	4.9%	6.9%	—	24.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	1.8%	28.9%	6.3%	—	20.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.3%	27.4%	1.9%	—	9.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	4.3%	18.4%	1.2%	—	7.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.4%	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.5%	17.2%	0.7%	—	3.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.1%	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	14.9%	0.7%	—	3.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.9%	8.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.8%	6.8%	0.9%	—	2.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.8%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.6%	9.8%	1.2%	—	1.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	1.1%	10.1%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.4%	9.4%	2.0%	—	2.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	12.3%	0.0%	—	2.1%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.9%	10.5%	1.2%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.9%	5.1%	0.6%	—	1.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.3%	7.1%	0.9%	0.9%	3.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.6%	3.5%	0.5%	—	1.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	6.5%	0.4%	0.0%	1.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.3%	4.0%	0.5%	—	1.4%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	5.1%	1.6%	0.8%	1.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	2.9%	0.5%	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.4%	0.4%	0.6%	0.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	1.3%	0.6%	—	0.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	88.0°F	4.1°F	2026-09-21 06:00	Pending
ICON	52%	87.9°F	9.8°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	83.6°F	6.3°F	2026-09-21 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	85.2°F	3.0°F	2026-09-21 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	10%	80.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-21 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	79.3°F	5.9°F	2026-09-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 21 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗