KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 25 · 03:49 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.5¢Risks 1.12u

WN2NO 95.5¢Risks 23.88u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.88u · WN2 −23.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	22.6%	—	—	15.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.1%	15.5%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	5.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	20.4%	44.4%	0.1%	—	17.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	14.0%	3.3%	4.8%	—	18.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.1%	22.8%	4.2%	—	15.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	15.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.8%	21.2%	1.1%	—	6.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	0.0%	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	2.7%	13.4%	0.7%	—	4.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.2%	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	12.2%	0.4%	—	2.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.0%	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.5%	10.2%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.5%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.4%	4.2%	0.4%	—	1.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.3%	6.1%	0.6%	—	0.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.5%	6.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.7%	5.6%	1.0%	—	1.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.7%	7.5%	0.0%	—	1.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	6.1%	0.5%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.9%	2.7%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.0%	3.7%	0.4%	0.4%	1.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	1.6%	0.2%	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	3.2%	0.1%	0.0%	0.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.8%	0.2%	—	0.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.6%	2.3%	0.6%	0.3%	0.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	1.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	28%	86.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	12%	84.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-25 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	81.7°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	81.7°F	4.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	2%	78.8°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.1°F	2.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	76.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 89°F+ · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗