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KBNA / Mon Sep 28 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Sep 24 · 10:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
6%
HRES
5%
AIFS
4%
ICON
1%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
3%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 2.9¢Risks 0.73u
VS
WN2NO 97.1¢Risks 24.27u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.27u · WN2 −24.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 59.5% · 2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.2% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.9% · 2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.1% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.6% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.4% · 2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 15.8% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.3% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 18.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.8% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.8% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.6% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.1% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.4% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.6% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.9% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.9% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.3% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.2% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.1% · 2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 22.4% · 2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.9% · 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.8% · 2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 27.4% · 2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.4% · 2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.8% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.7% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.1% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.4% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:0009-13 06:0009-21 00:0009-28 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-13T06:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-13T12:00:00+00:000.6%————6.1%
2026-09-13T18:00:00+00:0059.5%—————
2026-09-14T00:00:00+00:002.2%————22.4%
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:0018.9%—————
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:0013.1%————21.6%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:003.5%—————
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:0026.5%————34.9%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:003.7%—————
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:000.7%————20.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:0022.4%—————
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:004.4%————27.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%————26.5%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————17.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:004.4%—————
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:005.6%————16.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:003.2%—————
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:001.2%————12.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:0010.4%—————
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:001.5%————8.8%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:002.5%—————
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:001.8%————12.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:001.9%—1.0%———
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:003.1%—0.0%——14.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:001.7%————12.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:001.9%—7.4%———
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:001.2%—18.0%——11.7%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.9%—4.3%———
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:001.1%0.1%11.8%——11.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:000.7%—3.8%———
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.7%15.8%37.6%0.0%—13.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:001.0%—11.1%———
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:001.0%10.3%2.2%3.2%—14.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:001.2%—3.9%———
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:001.5%0.6%17.4%2.8%—11.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:001.5%—11.6%———
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.4%15.9%0.7%—4.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%17.9%———
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.7%1.6%9.3%0.4%—3.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.9%0.1%14.2%———
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.4%8.3%0.2%—1.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%7.8%———
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.3%6.6%0.2%—1.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%3.0%———
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%2.4%0.2%—0.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%2.4%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%3.5%0.3%—0.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.2%3.5%——0.3%
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.3%3.1%0.5%—0.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%4.2%0.0%—0.5%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%3.3%0.2%0.0%0.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.3%0.1%—0.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.4%1.8%0.1%0.1%0.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.7%0.1%—0.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%1.4%0.1%0.0%0.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.7%0.1%—0.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.9%0.2%0.1%0.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.2%0.4%0.1%—0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.3%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast22%86.0°F4.5°F2026-09-24 02:00Pending
National Blend21%86.0°F4.4°F2026-09-23 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble6%84.9°F2.9°F2026-09-23 00:00Pending
IFS HRES5%81.2°F5.0°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
AIFS Single4%81.1°F4.6°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
ICON1%78.9°F4.7°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%77.5°F4.2°F2026-09-23 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260928-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 21 · 10:52 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Sep 28

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗