KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

33%

27%

<1%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

WN2NO 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.35u · WN2 −76.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:17+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.5%	45.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.5%	45.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.5%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	25.9%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	24.5%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	24.5%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	24.5%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	24.5%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	24.5%	42.3%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	24.5%	25.2%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	24.5%	25.2%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	24.5%	25.2%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	25.9%	25.2%	1.4%	45.9%	8.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	25.9%	25.6%	1.4%	45.9%	8.2%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	25.9%	24.6%	1.4%	45.9%	8.2%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	25.9%	24.6%	1.4%	45.9%	8.2%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	25.9%	24.6%	1.4%	45.9%	7.9%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	25.9%	24.6%	0.8%	45.9%	7.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.9%	39.5%	6.7%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.9%	39.5%	6.7%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.9%	39.5%	6.7%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.3%	39.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.3%	39.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.3%	39.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	27.7%	46.9%	0.3%	39.5%	5.6%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.3%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.3%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.3%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.3%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	29.3%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	32.8%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	32.8%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	32.8%	46.9%	0.4%	26.9%	5.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	86.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗