KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST15%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

47%

33%

27%

<1%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 23.6¢Risks 23.65u

WN2NO 76.4¢Risks 76.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +76.35u · WN2 −76.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	34.6%	—	—	21.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	1.3%	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	33.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	1.3%	44.6%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	15.3%	40.9%	3.0%	—	43.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	4.4%	37.8%	9.3%	—	30.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	28.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	22.8%	53.8%	3.5%	—	38.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	16.4%	0.8%	0.6%	—	30.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	5.6%	46.7%	9.0%	—	33.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	2.1%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	4.1%	26.9%	2.3%	—	17.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	4.8%	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	3.2%	42.7%	2.8%	—	10.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	4.8%	36.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	4.9%	38.5%	2.0%	—	23.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	5.1%	37.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	3.5%	39.8%	0.9%	—	12.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	8.0%	22.8%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	14.3%	28.2%	1.0%	—	24.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.8%	26.7%	0.0%	—	22.3%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	11.0%	27.0%	0.5%	—	18.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	10.8%	25.3%	0.5%	—	20.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	10.6%	35.4%	1.1%	2.8%	25.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	9.2%	23.8%	1.6%	—	12.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	7.4%	28.4%	1.1%	2.4%	10.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	6.7%	16.4%	1.7%	—	13.2%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	10.8%	15.4%	2.5%	2.7%	16.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	6.5%	16.2%	1.3%	—	7.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	5.2%	11.0%	0.5%	1.2%	2.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	2.1%	10.7%	0.6%	—	6.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	47%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	33%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	27%	86.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
National Blend	14%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	6%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗