KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST7%Sep 29 · 06:37 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

24%

19%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 16.6¢Risks 16.60u

WN2NO 83.4¢Risks 83.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +83.40u · WN2 −83.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	29.2%	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	15.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	23.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	42.9%	—	—	27.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.8%	38.0%	—	—	34.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	11.5%	34.3%	2.0%	—	36.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	2.9%	31.0%	6.6%	—	24.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	17.4%	46.2%	2.2%	—	31.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	14.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	11.9%	0.5%	0.3%	—	24.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.0%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	3.6%	38.5%	6.1%	—	26.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	1.2%	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.5%	20.2%	1.3%	—	12.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.9%	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	1.9%	33.9%	1.6%	—	7.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	2.9%	27.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	2.9%	29.6%	1.1%	—	16.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	3.0%	28.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	1.9%	30.3%	0.4%	—	8.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	15.6%	—	—	12.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	9.0%	19.8%	0.5%	—	16.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	7.1%	18.3%	0.0%	—	14.8%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	6.5%	18.3%	0.2%	—	11.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.2%	16.7%	0.2%	—	13.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	5.9%	24.6%	0.5%	1.3%	16.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	4.9%	15.0%	0.7%	—	6.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	3.7%	18.2%	0.4%	1.0%	5.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.2%	9.2%	0.7%	—	7.1%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	5.5%	8.3%	1.0%	1.1%	8.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.9%	8.6%	0.4%	—	3.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	5.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	4.9%	0.2%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	32%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	19%	86.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	87.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 03:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	87.1°F	2.0°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	82.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	81.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗