KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

20%

15%

10%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.6¢Risks 16.60u

WN2NO 83.4¢Risks 83.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.40u · WN2 −83.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	13.2%	18.2%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	13.2%	18.2%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	13.2%	18.2%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	13.2%	18.2%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	13.2%	35.7%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	13.2%	35.7%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	13.2%	35.7%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	13.2%	35.7%	5.4%	21.8%	12.8%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	12.8%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	12.8%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	12.8%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	12.8%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	11.1%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	19.4%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	19.4%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	19.4%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	19.4%	35.7%	5.4%	21.9%	35.3%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	19.4%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	19.4%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	19.4%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	19.4%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T03:34:36+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	21.9%	35.2%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	60.0%	11.9%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	60.0%	11.9%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	60.0%	11.9%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	23.1%	36.6%	1.8%	60.0%	11.9%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	26.8%	36.6%	1.8%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	26.8%	36.6%	1.8%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	26.8%	36.6%	1.8%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	26.8%	36.6%	1.8%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	26.8%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	26.8%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	26.8%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	20.9%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	11.9%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	21.0%	21.0%	2.1%	35.3%	11.8%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00	21.0%	21.0%	2.1%	35.3%	11.8%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00	21.0%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	11.8%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	21.0%	20.7%	2.1%	35.3%	34.3%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00	21.0%	20.7%	0.9%	35.3%	34.3%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	21.0%	20.7%	0.9%	35.3%	34.3%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00	21.0%	20.7%	0.9%	35.3%	34.3%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	0.9%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	0.9%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	0.9%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	0.9%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	0.9%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00	24.4%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	34.3%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.5%	36.5%	21.1%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.1%	36.5%	21.1%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.1%	36.5%	21.1%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	28.7%	20.7%	1.1%	36.5%	21.1%
2026-09-24T07:27:46+00:00	15.6%	20.7%	1.1%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	15.6%	20.7%	1.1%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	15.6%	20.7%	1.1%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	15.6%	20.7%	1.1%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	15.6%	20.7%	1.1%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	15.6%	29.7%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	15.6%	29.7%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	15.6%	29.7%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	13.8%	29.7%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	13.8%	29.7%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.7%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	13.8%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	21.1%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	17.6%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	10.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	17.6%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	10.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	17.6%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	10.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	17.6%	25.2%	0.3%	35.3%	10.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	17.6%	25.2%	0.3%	32.8%	10.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	17.6%	20.1%	0.4%	32.8%	10.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	17.6%	20.1%	0.4%	32.8%	10.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	17.6%	20.1%	0.4%	32.8%	10.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	14.7%	20.1%	0.4%	32.8%	10.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	14.7%	20.1%	0.4%	32.8%	10.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	91.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	91.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	87.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	87.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	83.1°F	5.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗