KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

33%

20%

15%

10%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 16.6¢Risks 16.60u

WN2NO 83.4¢Risks 83.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +83.40u · WN2 −83.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	11.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	12.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	0.6%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	36.6%	—	—	22.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	0.5%	31.8%	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	8.5%	28.1%	1.3%	—	29.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	1.9%	24.9%	4.6%	—	18.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	17.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	12.9%	38.7%	1.4%	—	25.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	8.4%	0.3%	0.2%	—	18.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	0.0%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	2.2%	30.8%	3.9%	—	20.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.5%	14.6%	0.7%	—	8.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.7%	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.0%	25.9%	0.9%	—	4.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	1.6%	20.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	1.6%	21.8%	0.6%	—	11.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	1.7%	20.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.0%	21.9%	0.2%	—	4.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	2.6%	10.1%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	5.3%	13.1%	0.2%	—	10.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.0%	11.8%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.5%	11.6%	0.1%	—	6.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	3.3%	10.2%	0.1%	—	7.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	3.0%	15.9%	0.2%	0.6%	10.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	2.4%	8.7%	0.3%	—	3.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	10.7%	0.1%	0.4%	2.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.4%	4.7%	0.2%	—	3.5%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.5%	4.0%	0.4%	0.4%	4.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	4.1%	0.1%	—	1.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.8%	2.2%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	1.9%	0.0%	—	1.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	55%	91.0°F	4.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	91.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-24 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	87.9°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	87.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	15%	85.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	10%	83.1°F	5.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	79.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗