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KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
38%
HRES
36%
AIFS
35%
ICON
9%
WN2
2%
Consensus
26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 19.9¢Risks 19.85u
VS
WN2NO 80.2¢Risks 80.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.15u · WN2 −80.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 32.4% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00AIFS Single: 34.6% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 39.9% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 37.5% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS HRES: 48.1% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 34.9% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00IFS HRES: 36.4% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00ICON: 20.5% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00ICON: 13.5% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00ICON: 9.4% · 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:0009-28 14:4809-28 23:0509-30 06:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:48:34+00:0023.6%39.9%1.1%48.1%20.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:0023.6%39.9%1.1%48.1%20.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:0023.6%39.9%1.1%48.1%20.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:0023.6%39.9%0.5%48.1%13.4%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:0023.6%39.9%0.5%48.1%13.4%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:0023.6%39.9%0.5%48.1%13.4%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:0023.6%39.9%0.5%48.1%13.4%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.4%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.4%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.4%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.4%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:0028.2%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:0032.4%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:0032.4%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:0032.4%39.9%0.5%34.9%13.5%
2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:0034.6%37.5%0.3%36.4%9.4%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:0034.6%37.5%2.2%36.4%9.4%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:0034.6%37.5%2.2%36.4%9.4%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:0034.6%37.5%2.2%36.4%9.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast59%93.0°F2.2°F2026-09-30 04:00Pending
National Blend43%92.1°F2.2°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble38%91.7°F2.5°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
IFS HRES36%91.2°F3.7°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
AIFS Single35%90.9°F4.0°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending
ICON9%88.0°F3.4°F2026-09-30 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%85.6°F3.4°F2026-09-29 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗