KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST26%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

38%

36%

35%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 19.9¢Risks 19.85u

WN2NO 80.2¢Risks 80.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +80.15u · WN2 −80.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	2.6%	—	—	5.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	13.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	14.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	27.3%	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	18.9%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	27.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	30.5%	3.6%	0.2%	—	18.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	22.6%	0.0%	0.1%	—	24.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	12.9%	42.4%	6.3%	—	22.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	2.7%	20.6%	3.8%	—	28.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	0.1%	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	10.8%	47.5%	11.6%	—	30.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	6.7%	24.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	11.8%	28.4%	4.3%	—	38.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	14.5%	22.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	12.4%	31.4%	19.6%	—	33.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	24.6%	26.9%	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	29.6%	28.7%	17.1%	—	41.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	21.1%	36.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	19.7%	39.8%	15.7%	—	29.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	24.5%	35.5%	—	—	31.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	24.7%	32.1%	13.1%	0.0%	30.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	20.6%	27.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	15.3%	20.7%	14.0%	6.8%	15.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	17.5%	16.7%	14.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	18.2%	17.4%	21.7%	2.3%	24.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	15.0%	20.9%	20.9%	—	14.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	12.0%	26.2%	22.0%	5.7%	12.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	13.9%	16.4%	12.4%	—	15.6%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	20.2%	12.2%	17.2%	5.1%	15.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	13.6%	8.0%	9.9%	—	5.6%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	14.2%	8.9%	10.2%	4.8%	6.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	14.1%	17.0%	10.7%	—	18.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	92.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	38%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	9%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	85.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 14:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗