KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 28 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

89%

88%

86%

73%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

WN2NO 13.5¢Risks 13.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.55u · WN2 −13.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T03:04:18+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	75.6%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	75.6%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	79.6%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	79.0%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	79.0%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	79.0%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	79.0%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	79.0%	77.8%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	79.0%	92.7%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	79.0%	92.7%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	79.0%	92.7%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	82.1%	92.7%	66.0%	85.4%	23.9%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	82.1%	92.7%	65.9%	85.3%	23.9%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	65.9%	85.3%	23.9%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	65.9%	85.3%	23.9%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	65.9%	85.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	76.6%	85.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T18:08:47+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	76.6%	85.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	82.1%	92.2%	76.6%	85.3%	76.1%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	76.6%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	76.6%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	76.6%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	76.6%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	76.6%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	80.6%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	76.1%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	75.3%	89.1%	85.6%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	78.6%	89.1%	85.6%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	78.6%	89.1%	85.6%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	77.4%	92.2%	78.6%	89.1%	85.6%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	78.6%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	78.6%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	78.6%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	78.6%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	83.9%	92.2%	78.6%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	85.6%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	78.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	78.5%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	78.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	91.5%	78.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	84.7%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	83.9%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	78.5%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	74.0%	83.6%	87.2%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	87.3%	83.6%	87.2%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	87.3%	83.6%	87.2%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	85.4%	99.9%	87.3%	83.6%	87.2%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	87.3%	99.9%	87.3%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	87.3%	99.9%	87.3%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	87.3%	99.9%	87.3%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	87.3%	99.9%	87.3%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	87.3%	99.9%	87.3%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	87.3%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	87.3%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	87.3%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.2%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.8%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.8%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.8%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	84.5%	92.7%	87.8%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	76.1%	92.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	76.1%	92.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	76.1%	92.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	85.0%	100.0%	76.1%	92.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	76.1%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	76.1%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	76.1%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	76.1%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	86.9%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	72.9%	88.7%	86.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	93.7°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	93.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	92.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	91.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
ICON	86%	91.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	89.7°F	3.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	88.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗