KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST98%Sep 28 · 04:13 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

89%

88%

86%

73%

Consensus

98%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 86.5¢Risks 86.45u

WN2NO 13.5¢Risks 13.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +13.55u · WN2 −13.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	16.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	28.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	36.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	7.5%	—	—	35.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	30.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	4.9%	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	1.4%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	21.8%	6.2%	—	—	48.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	—	85.9%	11.9%	—	53.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	7.1%	80.1%	66.3%	—	69.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	63.5%	85.4%	61.3%	—	82.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	78.8%	88.9%	61.8%	—	80.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	13.9%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	58.3%	69.2%	88.4%	40.1%	—	84.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	65.0%	87.2%	—	—	3.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	81.6%	91.0%	32.2%	—	91.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	58.0%	84.5%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	80.4%	90.6%	73.4%	—	88.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	64.8%	86.3%	88.2%	—	—	90.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	84.7%	93.2%	79.0%	—	91.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	89.0%	93.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	64.1%	86.1%	95.1%	80.3%	—	89.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	92.4%	96.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	92.3%	93.4%	82.4%	—	92.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	92.9%	93.3%	0.0%	—	89.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	94.6%	96.5%	91.0%	92.4%	90.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	92.6%	97.3%	86.8%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	75.4%	96.3%	97.4%	90.5%	94.5%	93.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	96.0%	96.3%	91.8%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	95.4%	97.2%	88.0%	96.0%	91.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	79.9%	96.0%	96.0%	91.3%	—	92.4%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	97.9%	95.3%	93.2%	98.4%	90.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	96.8%	97.1%	94.0%	—	90.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	97.4%	99.0%	95.2%	98.7%	92.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	97.2%	98.4%	95.9%	—	90.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	93.7°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	95%	93.0°F	3.9°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	92.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	91.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
ICON	86%	91.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	89.7°F	3.2°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	88.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 03:04 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗