KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

78%

75%

74%

58%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.8¢Risks 73.80u

ICONNO 26.2¢Risks 26.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.20u · ICON −26.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.0%	—	—	20.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	45.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	16.9%	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	2.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	0.4%	—	—	16.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	37.4%	9.9%	2.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	70.8%	4.4%	—	33.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	2.2%	61.6%	44.9%	—	48.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	40.9%	68.4%	38.7%	—	63.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	57.9%	73.2%	38.2%	—	60.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	4.5%	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.8%	45.0%	71.4%	18.9%	—	65.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	35.8%	39.8%	68.9%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	59.6%	75.2%	13.1%	—	75.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	31.8%	63.2%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	56.4%	73.4%	47.2%	—	68.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	64.8%	68.2%	—	—	71.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	61.5%	77.5%	52.9%	—	73.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	68.3%	76.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	62.2%	81.0%	53.1%	—	67.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	73.8%	83.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	72.7%	75.3%	54.4%	—	73.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	73.3%	74.2%	0.0%	—	66.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	76.7%	82.5%	68.0%	71.0%	65.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	70.7%	84.8%	58.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	80.1%	84.1%	64.6%	74.4%	72.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	78.1%	79.1%	66.3%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	74.9%	81.8%	56.7%	77.0%	63.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	41.7%	75.8%	75.8%	62.3%	—	65.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	82.8%	72.0%	65.5%	85.4%	58.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	76.4%	77.6%	66.2%	—	56.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	77.4%	87.5%	68.3%	84.8%	59.4%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	74.6%	81.9%	69.0%	—	51.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	95.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	94.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	90%	92.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	92.6°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	91.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	58%	90.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗