KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

47%

46%

40%

14%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.0¢Risks 36.05u

WN2NO 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.95u · WN2 −63.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	18.0%	50.8%	42.5%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	18.0%	50.8%	42.5%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	28.0%	50.8%	36.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	28.0%	50.8%	36.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	28.0%	50.8%	36.9%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	44.9%	72.6%	28.0%	50.8%	36.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	43.6%	72.6%	28.0%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	43.6%	72.6%	28.0%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	43.6%	72.6%	28.0%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	43.6%	72.6%	28.0%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	43.6%	62.2%	22.4%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	43.6%	62.2%	22.4%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	43.6%	62.2%	22.4%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	43.6%	62.2%	22.4%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	40.0%	62.2%	22.5%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	40.0%	62.2%	22.5%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	22.5%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	22.5%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	14.6%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	14.6%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	14.6%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	40.0%	63.9%	14.6%	55.3%	36.9%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	42.7%	63.9%	14.6%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	42.7%	63.9%	14.6%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	42.7%	63.9%	14.6%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	42.7%	63.9%	14.6%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	42.7%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	42.7%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	42.7%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	42.7%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	12.3%	57.9%	36.9%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	25.0%	57.9%	36.7%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	25.0%	57.9%	36.7%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	45.4%	62.2%	25.0%	57.9%	36.7%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	48.1%	62.2%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	48.1%	62.2%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	48.1%	62.2%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	48.1%	62.2%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	48.1%	62.2%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	48.1%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	48.1%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	48.1%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	43.3%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	36.7%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	25.0%	48.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	48.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	48.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	48.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	42.4%	58.1%	14.9%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	42.4%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	42.4%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	42.4%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	46.2%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	46.2%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	46.2%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	46.2%	58.5%	13.6%	47.1%	39.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	93.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	92.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	92.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	92.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	91.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	88.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗