KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST45%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

47%

46%

40%

14%

Consensus

45%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 36.0¢Risks 36.05u

WN2NO 63.9¢Risks 63.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +63.95u · WN2 −63.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.0%	—	—	10.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	29.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	7.9%	—	—	4.7%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	3.6%	0.5%	—	—	14.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	50.7%	1.3%	—	16.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	40.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	0.5%	39.9%	24.9%	—	27.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	21.1%	46.2%	19.5%	—	40.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	34.5%	50.8%	18.4%	—	36.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	1.0%	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	22.5%	47.5%	6.6%	—	40.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	18.4%	44.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	16.1%	33.8%	50.9%	3.8%	—	50.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	36.8%	49.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	29.7%	47.2%	22.3%	—	41.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	37.0%	40.6%	—	—	44.3%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	33.0%	51.0%	25.5%	—	46.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	39.1%	49.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.8%	32.1%	54.1%	24.3%	—	37.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	43.7%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	41.3%	44.5%	23.8%	—	42.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	41.0%	42.2%	0.0%	—	33.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	44.2%	52.3%	34.1%	37.4%	32.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	35.9%	54.8%	24.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	46.3%	52.5%	28.7%	38.9%	36.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	42.3%	43.6%	29.1%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	36.8%	46.0%	20.0%	39.4%	25.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	36.3%	36.3%	23.2%	—	25.3%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	44.2%	30.5%	24.5%	48.5%	19.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	33.8%	35.2%	23.6%	—	16.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	33.1%	48.4%	23.8%	43.7%	17.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	28.1%	37.0%	22.8%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	58%	93.0°F	2.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	92.9°F	2.1°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
IFS HRES	47%	92.2°F	4.1°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	92.1°F	4.2°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	40%	91.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	88.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗