KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

26%

24%

22%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.4¢Risks 21.45u

ICONNO 78.5¢Risks 78.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.55u · ICON −78.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	4.8%	28.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	28.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	28.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	28.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	28.2%	26.1%	14.2%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T10:34:40+00:00	30.2%	26.1%	14.2%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	30.2%	25.7%	11.6%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	30.2%	25.7%	11.6%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	30.2%	25.7%	11.6%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	11.6%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	11.7%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	11.7%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T15:53:28+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	11.7%	27.8%	15.3%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	11.7%	27.8%	11.0%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	5.2%	27.8%	11.0%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	5.2%	27.8%	11.0%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	25.2%	25.7%	5.2%	27.8%	11.0%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	5.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	5.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	5.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	5.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	5.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	26.0%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	6.2%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	21.6%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	21.6%	24.3%	11.0%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	31.9%	25.7%	21.6%	24.3%	11.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	95.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	94.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	92.6°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	92.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	91.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	90.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗