KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 95°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 01 · 06:57 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

32%

26%

24%

22%

11%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 21.4¢Risks 21.45u

ICONNO 78.5¢Risks 78.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +78.55u · ICON −78.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.4%	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	4.3%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	1.6%	0.2%	—	—	8.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	36.9%	0.5%	—	9.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	0.2%	26.6%	14.8%	—	17.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	11.8%	31.6%	10.7%	—	27.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	21.2%	35.2%	9.7%	—	23.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	0.3%	35.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	12.0%	31.5%	2.7%	—	25.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	9.2%	28.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	19.6%	33.8%	1.3%	—	33.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	21.5%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	16.0%	29.7%	11.0%	—	25.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	21.0%	23.8%	—	—	26.9%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	17.7%	32.1%	12.6%	—	27.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	21.9%	29.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	16.3%	34.0%	11.3%	—	20.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	24.5%	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	22.1%	24.7%	10.4%	—	23.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	21.4%	22.3%	0.0%	—	16.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	23.3%	30.0%	16.0%	18.3%	14.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	16.7%	31.4%	9.7%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	23.6%	28.7%	11.8%	18.2%	16.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	20.0%	20.9%	11.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	15.7%	22.0%	6.5%	17.3%	8.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	14.7%	14.7%	7.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	19.1%	10.8%	7.8%	22.2%	5.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	12.0%	12.8%	7.0%	—	4.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	11.0%	20.3%	6.6%	17.1%	4.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.9%	12.3%	5.8%	—	2.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	95.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 02:00	Pending
National Blend	43%	94.1°F	2.2°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	92.6°F	4.0°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	92.8°F	2.6°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	91.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
ICON	11%	90.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 95°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE95
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 95°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗