KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.4¢Risks 4.72u

WN2NO 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.27u · WN2 −45.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T19:39:34+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	2.0%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	2.0%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-25T21:10:23+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	2.0%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	2.0%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	2.0%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	6.6%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	21.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.3%	22.1%	3.1%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.4%	22.1%	3.1%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.4%	22.1%	3.1%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	3.8%	4.3%	1.4%	22.1%	3.1%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	4.7%	4.3%	1.4%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	4.7%	4.3%	1.4%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	4.7%	4.3%	1.4%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	4.7%	4.3%	1.4%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	4.7%	4.3%	1.4%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	4.7%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	4.7%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	4.7%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	3.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	18.4%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	18.4%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	18.4%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	4.4%	2.0%	0.7%	24.0%	18.4%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.7%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.7%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.7%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.7%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.7%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.5%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.5%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	0.5%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	3.0%	2.0%	0.5%	16.4%	18.4%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	3.0%	2.0%	0.5%	16.4%	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	93.3°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	93.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	87.5°F	9.7°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	89.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	89.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	91.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	87.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗