KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

18%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 9.4¢Risks 4.72u

WN2NO 90.5¢Risks 45.27u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.27u · WN2 −45.27u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	4.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	16.7%	—	—	1.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	1.8%	11.2%	0.1%	—	5.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.2%	8.4%	0.9%	—	1.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	14.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.8%	16.4%	0.0%	—	2.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	11.9%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	1.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.0%	0.2%	0.4%	—	2.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	2.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%	0.2%	—	2.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	0.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	18%	93.3°F	6.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	16%	93.0°F	6.6°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	11%	87.5°F	9.7°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	4%	89.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	89.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	91.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	87.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗