KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

74%

67%

30%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.95u · ICON −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	79.8%	36.5%	11.8%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	36.5%	11.8%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	36.5%	11.8%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	36.5%	11.8%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	89.6%	82.3%	83.0%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	81.2%	82.3%	83.0%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	81.2%	77.3%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	81.2%	77.3%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	81.2%	77.3%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	79.4%	77.3%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	79.4%	77.4%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	83.8%	76.9%	11.8%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	83.8%	76.9%	29.8%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.9%	29.8%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.9%	29.8%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	79.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.9%	29.8%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	88.2%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	85.6%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	85.6%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	83.4%	78.5%	85.6%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	78.2%	78.5%	85.6%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	78.2%	78.5%	85.6%	76.3%	29.8%
2026-10-01T15:18:10+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	77.6%	29.8%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	66.9%	83.3%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-01T23:34:52+00:00	66.9%	84.0%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	66.9%	84.0%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	66.9%	84.0%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	74.0%	84.0%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	74.0%	84.0%	92.3%	67.2%	29.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	81.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	80.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	78.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	76.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗