KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

84%

74%

67%

30%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.1¢Risks 61.05u

ICONNO 38.9¢Risks 38.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.95u · ICON −38.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	58.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	57.6%	—	—	72.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	79.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	68.1%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	66.5%	—	—	58.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	72.2%	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	36.1%	56.1%	—	—	68.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	43.0%	55.6%	47.9%	—	82.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	3.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	29.1%	52.9%	58.7%	—	68.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	2.9%	72.4%	26.4%	—	58.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	28.1%	47.6%	45.2%	—	45.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	34.1%	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	36.1%	—	44.2%	48.3%	37.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.2%	9.9%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	6.2%	93.0%	53.5%	—	39.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	22.2%	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	18.4%	41.8%	75.6%	—	38.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	37.9%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	31.3%	53.9%	41.3%	—	35.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	21.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	61.2%	72.4%	28.5%	54.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	88.4%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	81.7%	74.5%	31.1%	52.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	85.9%	1.8%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	80.1%	73.0%	—	62.6%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	87.4%	70.7%	57.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	32.0%	89.4%	65.8%	51.2%	71.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	24.8%	84.2%	70.9%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	16.5%	93.0%	46.0%	80.0%	61.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	36.3%	89.6%	37.7%	—	40.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	35.8%	89.8%	42.8%	60.1%	48.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	26.0%	91.4%	47.0%	—	24.8%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	30.3%	96.3%	51.6%	30.3%	50.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	50.0%	91.4%	70.5%	—	53.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	81.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	80.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	79.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	78.5°F	4.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	76.8°F	4.4°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
ICON	30%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE77
Opened Sep 30 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 77°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗